Contrary Thinker's Market Letters

Contrary Thinker's Market Letters

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Contrary Thinker's Market Letters
Contrary Thinker's Market Letters
MarketMap™ Navigator

MarketMap™ Navigator

July 11, 2025

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Contrary Thinker
Jul 11, 2025
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Contrary Thinker's Market Letters
Contrary Thinker's Market Letters
MarketMap™ Navigator
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🔥 The Shape of Time Is Breaking

The Coming Fracture

MarketMap™ Navigator’s current outlook is not simply about regional instability. It’s about a fundamental shift in the rhythm of global time itself. From July through October, the prevailing conditions that shaped markets, power structures, and security frameworks since 2017 are entering a period of instability and unpredictability, because they are based on the continuation of the same underlying risk management or lack thereof.

This disruption is not theoretical—it’s unfolding now, led by geopolitical fracture points and intensified by cyber threats. All week we’ve collaborated on these events with membership and deep-seek showing up on back pages and confirmed their validity and their ascension to pages closer to the front.

The destabilization within Russia is another visible fault line. The shape of time is changing, and with it, the structure of stock markets worldwide.


🚨 Illustrations: Russia in Breakdown

Russia—once buffered by elite wealth and authoritarian stability—is now cannibalizing its own top tier to fund the war in Ukraine. Recent events underscore the scope of the unraveling:

  • Oligarch Arrested: Gold magnate Konstantin Strukov, one of Russia’s richest men, was arrested while fleeing on his private jet. His passport was revoked, and his mining empire is being seized by the state. Desperation is pushing Putin's regime to loot its own loyalists. Sources: FT, TVP World, Economic Times

  • Drone Chaos & Airport Gridlock: Ukraine launched a major drone attack deep inside Russian territory, disrupting air defense systems and grounding over 2,000 flights across Moscow and St. Petersburg. This hit the elite where it hurts—mobility. Sources: Meduza, Moscow Times, The Insider

  • Crisis at the Top: Russia’s Transport Minister Roman Starovoit was found dead shortly after being dismissed over embezzlement charges tied to border defense. His death is part of a growing pattern of suspicious high-level exits. Source: The Times (UK)

  • Middle-Class Collapse: Economic sanctions have hollowed out the Russian consumer economy. DIY dental kits are now flying off shelves—up 300%—as people forgo professional care. Source: The Times (UK)


🧭 The Quality of Time the 90% do not see coming

What’s unfolding in Russia is more than a national crisis—it’s a symptom of the global disorder MarketMap™ Navigator forecasted for this season. The chaos at airports, the collapse of medical basics, the purge of oligarchs—each is a signal flare warning that the contours of stability are dissolving.

This is not just about Russia. It’s about every system that mistook recent continuity for permanence, that mistook analogical thinking for digital. They feel risk assessment is not needed when you have good luck. As the shape of time bends under pressure, old assumptions fail. Whether it’s good luck, the trend, or whatever market has relied upon for the low volatility advance since November 6, 2016, like any other system or method it will go into max drawdown when the market’s regime - context - changes. From Silicon Valley's cyber vulnerabilities to Beijing's capital controls, to Washington's institutional drift—the shockwaves will not be contained.


Recap last two months of Contrary Thinker, second half scenario

  • S&P 500 / NASDAQ / Dow Jones

  • U.S. Dollar Index

  • Cryptocurrencies

  • Gold & Silver

  • Energy / Crude Oil

  • Interest Rates / Bonds

  • Implied Volatility

  • Emerging Markets ETF

High Delta Newsletter Trade Methodology:

Summary

  • Contrary Thinker is a pure directional player on volatility. Expecting to maximize leverage on the second expected regime shift from June through October 2025. Fine tuning entry conditions: context and time.

  • Entry is timed immediately or on confirming volatility signals, goal to be fast but rather be on the right-hand side of the pivot

  • Exit is discretionary but generally when volatility reaches a significant blowoff, panic low or extreme contraction, locking in asymmetric gains.

  • Contrary Thinker does not hedge or use spreads, preferring outright long positions that capture volatility spikes and aberrations fully, since 1987.

  • Parts of the process are driven by TradeStation Strategy code for alerting or disciplined execution. More to follow, including an app.

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