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Volatility Report

Oct-17-2025

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Contrary Thinker
Oct 17, 2025
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Leading from the front.

Leadership is the key ingredient to the topping process, that has been monitored since early October. It will lead to our success today, like at the beginning of the year when the Bell Weather markets are doing the same thing. That leadership is in the Bitcoin market because it is the premier risk takers playground. Unlike the Nasdaq and high-tech stocks, the mob that trades Bitcoin knows how to create something out of nothing. Whereas the high-tech industry has a real and meaningful impact on the economy. However, everyone in tech including supply chain has attached AI or its equivalent to their product’s names. By doing so this segment has created a self- perpetuating bubble similar to early 2000.

The chart you see here reflects a downtrend that looks in terms of price structure as the beginning of a new trend, in this case making lower lows and lower highs therefore a downtrend. The current drop below $109,000 is confirmation that the trend has turned decidedly lower.

In Elliott Wave terms it is clear five wave structure. Therefore, an impulse wave calling the larger trend down.

While there are nuances with our volatility model which are explain in the new user doc, this Volatility Report uses the basic model that continues the show since its panic low at the end of September the Bitcoin futures have remained in a panic condition (a highly emotional state both during the advance and this decline.

The current Based on TEM in our panic complacency index reflex today is in a state of near-term capitulation. That fits the timing scenario we laid out earlier this week regarding the timing of a secondary peak.

See the current MarketMap™ weekly and the abridged MarketMap™ below.

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